Once again, US economic and market forecasters are having a difficult time. Worse, while 2023 surprised on the upside, the deviation from projections in 2024 could be much less favorable.

Recall the start of 2023. Forecasters had overwhelmingly anticipated a difficult year for economic growth, and that this would translate into even more losses for diversified portfolio investors, who had already suffered one of the worst years on record in 2022. In a now famous October 2022 headline, Bloomberg warned: “Forecast for US Recession Within Year Hits 100% in Blow to Biden”.

The prediction of a 2023 ...